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mts1b-prediction-markets

Prediction-market adapters: Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, Limitless, PredictFun.

Repo: github.com/MTS1B/mts1b-prediction-markets Layer: 6 Wave: 3 (months 8-12) Depends on: foundation, platform, llm, operations Audience: prediction-market traders

What it is​

A treasury-allocated sleeve for prediction markets: politics, economics, science, culture. Each venue is a different beast:

VenueTypeRegulationAuth
kalshiCFTC-regulated DCMfullAPI key
polymarketcrypto-based (UMA oracle)offshorewallet + sig
manifoldplay-money + real moneynone (charitable)API key
limitlessonchain, conditional tokensoffshorewallet + sig
predictfuncryptooffshorewallet + sig

⚠️ Polymarket /event/ URLs 404 — use polymarket.com/markets?_q= instead. Adapter handles.

⚠️ Kalshi schema migrated to yes_bid_dollars (decimal); adapter parses both new and legacy formats defensively.

Module layout​

mts1b_prediction_markets/
├── kalshi/
│   ├── client.py
│   ├── auth.py
│   └── markets/
├── polymarket/
│   ├── client.py
│   ├── auth.py                  # wallet signature
│   └── markets/
├── manifold/
├── limitless/
├── predictfun/
├── unified/
│   ├── consensus.py             # cross-venue YES probability
│   ├── search.py                # find markets across venues by topic
│   └── arb.py                   # YES on one venue vs NO on another
└── api/
    └── rest.py

Reading prices​

from mts1b_prediction_markets.kalshi import Kalshi

async with Kalshi(api_key="...") as k:
    market = await k.market_by_ticker("PRESDEM-24")
    # Market(ticker="PRESDEM-24", title="Will Democrats win 2024?",
    #        yes_bid_dollars=Decimal("0.42"), yes_ask_dollars=Decimal("0.43"),
    #        no_bid_dollars=Decimal("0.57"), no_ask_dollars=Decimal("0.58"),
    #        last_trade_dollars=Decimal("0.42"), volume_usd=12_300_000)

Consensus + arb​

from mts1b_prediction_markets.unified import consensus, find_arbs

# Cross-venue median YES probability for a search term
c = await consensus(query="Trump elected 2024", venues=["kalshi", "polymarket", "manifold"])
# Consensus(query="Trump elected 2024",
#           matches=[("kalshi", 0.55), ("polymarket", 0.58), ("manifold", 0.60)],
#           median=0.58,
#           dispersion_iqr=0.05)

# Arb opportunities
arbs = await find_arbs(query="Trump elected 2024", min_edge_pct=2.0)
# [Arb(market_a="kalshi:PRESREP-24",   yes_buy_price=0.55,
#      market_b="polymarket:0x...",    no_buy_price=0.40,
#      net_edge_pct=5.0,
#      stake_optimal_yes=0.42, stake_optimal_no=0.58)]

Order placement​

from mts1b_prediction_markets.kalshi import Kalshi

async with Kalshi(api_key="...") as k:
    order = await k.place_order(
        ticker="PRESDEM-24",
        side="yes",
        quantity=100,                  # contracts
        limit_price_dollars=Decimal("0.42"),
        type="limit",
        time_in_force="day",
    )

OMS integration (Wave 3+): mts1b-oms learns a few prediction-market broker adapters so policy + audit + risk-gates apply consistently.

Kalshi specifics​

CFTC-regulated; only U.S.-based users; KYC required. Categories: economics, climate, politics (CFTC has tight constraints here), science, entertainment.

async with Kalshi(api_key="...") as k:
    politics_markets = await k.markets(category="politics", status="open")
    # [Market(ticker="PRESDEM-24", ...), ...]

Polymarket specifics​

UMA Oracle resolves outcomes. Settlement in USDC on Polygon. Wallet signatures required for orders. Adapter manages the wallet via:

from mts1b_prediction_markets.polymarket import Polymarket

async with Polymarket(
    private_key_hex="<NEVER hard-code; load from Vault>",
    chain="polygon",
) as pm:
    market = await pm.market_by_slug("trump-elected-2024")
    # ...

Vault path: secret/mts1b/prediction_markets/polymarket/wallet_private_key.

⚠️ Polymarket on most U.S. jurisdictions is geo-blocked. Operators are responsible for compliance.

Manifold specifics​

Charitable mana → USD conversion is restricted, but markets give clean probability signals. Useful for:

  • Calibration testing against Kalshi/Polymarket
  • Forecasting topics CFTC won't permit on Kalshi
  • Building consensus

Limitless + PredictFun​

Crypto-native, smaller TVL, sometimes have niche markets (e.g., basketball player prop probabilities). Same wallet-sig auth as Polymarket.

Build + test​

pip install -e ".[dev]"
pytest -m unit
pytest -m live --venue=manifold   # free venue for live testing

Roadmap​

VersionItems
0.1 (Wave 3)5 venues, consensus, search, arb detection
0.2 (Wave 3)OMS integration (orders route through mts1b-oms)
0.3Kalshi-CFTC compliance helpers
1.0 (LTS)Stable adapter interface

See also​